.
DECEMBER 21 — JANUARY 6 Parliamentary recess Mrs May is
hoping to win some respite during the Christmas period from the uproar in parliament.
The House of Commons is scheduled to take a two-week recess. But given the
anger throughout the political parties at her decision to delay the “meaningful
vote” on her deal, pressure on the prime minister may mount. MID-JANUARY House
of Commons vote MPs were due to vote on Mrs May’s Brexit deal on December 11
but the prime minister cancelled the vote the day before, admitting that she
faced a heavy defeat. Mrs May has now said the debate on her EU deal will
restart on the week of January 7, with the vote scheduled for the week of
January 14.
The vote is a legal obligation under the UK’s 2018 EU
Withdrawal Act, which says it must take place “before the European Parliament
decides whether it consents to the withdrawal agreement being concluded on
behalf of the EU”. Whenever it takes place, the UK prime minister faces an
uphill battle. More than 100 Conservative members of parliament denounced her
original deal, as have the 10 MPs from the Democratic Unionist party who
provide Mrs May with her majority, and nearly all Opposition MPs.
JANUARY 22 OR
BEFORE?
No-confidence motion? If the deal falls, or even if it does
not, the government could face a no-confidence motion backed by opposition
parties. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has so far resisted pushing such a vote,
in the belief that the government still has a slim majority due to the
combination of its own MPs and the DUP. However, circumstances could change — a
successful vote of no confidence in the Commons could ultimately lead to a
general election.
FEBRUARY 11 OR BEFORE? Parliament takes back control? If Mrs
May is defeated in a meaningful vote on her deal, the government will have to
report back on its plans for next steps within 21 days, according to the EU
Withdrawal Act. This may be the opportunity for parliament, in which the
majority is against a hard Brexit, to take a greater role. Following a Commons
defeat for the government in December, MPs will be able to assert their point
of view by amending the new plans set out by the government — whether to come
out against a no-deal Brexit, call for a second referendum or recommend
Norway-style membership of the EU’s single market.
JANUARY-FEBRUARY Deal passed into UK law? If, by contrast,
the Commons approves the Brexit deal in a meaningful vote, the government will
put forward a new piece of legislation: the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill.
This would pass into law some of Brexit’s biggest issues, such as the agreement
on citizens’ rights, the financial settlement and the details of the
transition. It will be a hugely consequential piece of legislation. There may
be many battles on individual details.
UNTIL MARCH 29 2019 EU ratification Before any Brexit deal
can take effect, it must also be approved by the European Parliament in a
plenary vote. Any legally questionable elements of the withdrawal treaty could
also be referred to the ECJ by MEPs. EU member states must also give the
deal final approval in a ministerial meeting. MARCH 29 2019 Brexit day There
will be plenty of political declarations on this historic day. But whether
there will be discernible changes to everyday life depends on the negotiations
